韓国シンクタンクが経済に警告発令中!? 今後の経済政策は!?【韓国経済】【韓国 反応】【韓国 崩壊】

お疲れ様です。いちかです。
今日のニュースと戯言・独り言をはじめます。
韓国の国策シンクタンクが2060年に同国の債務がGDPとほぼ均衡する旨の報告書を出していた。
その予測通りに債務が膨らみつつある韓国。
文政権は次にどのような経済政策を打つのだろうか。




ニュースの内容
朝鮮日報オンラインによると、韓国企画財政部が2年前、「新規義務支出導入」と「成長率低下」が重なった場合、
2060年には国内総生産（GDP）に占める政府債務の割合が94.6％（今年は37.1％）まで高まるとする報告書の提出を国策シンクタンクから受けていたことが22日までに分かった。

　国家の債務比率は財政健全性を評価する重要な指標だ。そうした国策機関の警告があったにもかかわらず、文在寅政権はそれを無視し、
国家が法令上必ず支出しなければならない福祉費など「義務支出」を新たに増やすなど拡張的財政政策を推し進めてきた。
このため、政府債務比率が報告書の見通し通り、実際に急上昇しかねないとの懸念が高まっている。

　国会企画財政委員会に所属するシム・ジェチョル議員事務所によると、韓国租税財政研究院は2017年4月、さまざまなシナリオを想定し、政府債務比率を推定した報告書を企画財政部に提出した。
研究院は同報告書で「裁量支出が名目成長率通りに増加した場合、政府債務が持続的に増加し、2060年には62.4％まで上昇する」と指摘した。
裁量支出は政府の歳出全体から法定支出と利子など「義務支出」を除いた部分を意味する。

　その上で、研究院は「裁量支出を構造調整する場合、政府債務は持続可能な水準（60年に38.1％）に管理可能だ」と試算した。
裁量支出を名目成長率以下に抑えれば、「財政の持続可能性」が確保されるとしたものだ。
しかし、文在寅政権（18－20年）に入り、裁量支出の伸び率は平均6.4％で今年の経済成長率見通し（3.0％）の2倍以上高い。




分析・見解①
マクロ経済の観点から見ると今回の報道は偏っているとは言えない。
というのは債務が膨らんでいるからと言って、それが悪いとは限らないからだ。

日本と比較してみよう。
韓国の債務対GDP比（GDPにおける債務の割合）は現時点で37%だそうだ。
日本はどうか。なんとすでに240%だ。
一般論で言えば、韓国の6倍以上財政的に不健全となる。

しかし、その他の基礎的経済条件（ファンダメンタルズ）はどうだろう。
第一に通貨で言えば、円は世界トップレベルで強い。
各国から信用されており、米ドルに対抗できるほどだ。

加えて、日本国債の長期金利は極めて低い。
日本国債とは、いわゆる「国の借金」である。
日本が韓国の6倍以上抱えている借金。
これを超低金利で買おうとする人が後を絶たない。
後を絶たないから金利が低いまま維持されていく。

なぜか。日本が信用されているからだ。
借金がこんなにもあるのに、だ。

一方で韓国はどうか。
ウォンは信用がなく、雇用も弱い。
経済そのものが貧弱である。
債務比率は極めて低く、先進国の中でもトップレベルなはずなのに、である。
上記の事実を考慮すれば、債務対GDPの高いのは危険だという主張に根拠がないように思える。


分析・見解②
経済学における常識の１つが「誰かの支出は誰かの所得」である。
例えば、あなたがコンビニで100円のパンを１つ買うことにしたとしよう。
とすれば、あなたはコンビニに100円を支払う。
そしてそれをレジの店員が100円を受け取る。
日常でよくある光景だが、個人や企業レベルでも上記のようなやり取りが起こっているのだ。

これを考慮し、マクロ的観点から考えると、政府債務の拡大は必ずしも悪とは言えない。
なぜなら「誰かの支出は誰かの所得」。
つまり「政府の債務は国民の所得」であるからだ。

いちかの戯言、独り言！

詳しくは述べないが、デフレ下であれば、政府債務の拡大は経済成長に繋がる。
政府債務の拡大とは財政政策のことであるが、まず雇用を生み出したいなら金融政策が先だろう。

政府支出の拡大は状況に応じて善悪が入れ替わるものであり、それゆえマスコミが騒ぐのはナンセンスであるが、
文政権の経済政策に期待できないのも理解できる。




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